This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Market Commentary:
Economic data influencing mortgage rates during March 6–12, 2026 centered on a surprisingly weak jobs report, inflation expectations, and movements in Treasury yields. A major labor‑market release on March 6 showed a 92,000 job loss and a rising unemployment rate, which interrupted a weeklong climb in the 10‑year Treasury yield and briefly stabilized rates after earlier upward pressure.
Alongside the employment shock, markets were also responding to inflation concerns and global tensions, which kept rate volatility elevated. Analysts noted that economic data suggested rates could improve, but geopolitical headlines were pushing inflation worries back into focus, creating a tug‑of‑war effect on mortgage pricing. Treasury yield fluctuations especially in the 10‑year continued to be a key driver, as mortgage rates track closely with those movements.
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 03/12/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
Single-Family Permits End 2025 on a Soft Note:
2025 Top Rental Markets for Recent College Graduates:
The Ban on Investors Is Stuck on One Key Question: What Is ‘Large’?
The State of Housing in America | U.S. Chamber of Commerce
2026 Migration Momentum: Top States Gaining and Losing Residents
Stagflation Scare:
While talk of stagflation, high inflation and high unemployment, is suddenly pervasive after last week’s lousy jobs report and rising oil prices, I remain skeptical. Oil futures for 3/27 are trading at $68/bbl. Last month, 3/27 contracts were trading at $62/bbl. Investors aren’t of the view this recent spike in the spot prices is going to last. Moreover, a quiescent Iran should result in reduced volatility and lower oil prices. - Elliot Eisenberg, Economist
News You Can Use:
· Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers increased despite big interest rate volatility
· The Typical Homeowner Earns About 85% More Than the Typical Renter
· Stagflation Fears Threaten Spring Housing Market as Oil Hits $100 a Barrel
· Kevin Warsh's Confirmation as Fed Chair Faces Delays in Senate
· Housing Bill Would Force Sales of Build-for-Rent Homes
· America Faces Shortfall of 7.2 Million Affordable Rental Homes
· February home sales see small rebound, but supply growth is 'sluggish'
· How will the war in Iran impact the US housing market?
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 03/12/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. Actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 03/12/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
