This Market Update is written by our Capital Market specialists each week to bring you insight into what's happening in the market and how it may affect mortgage rates and real estate trends.
Rates are provided by Housing Wire in conjunction with Polly. Rates are updated in real-time. Polly data is calculated using actual locked rates. Rates are inclusive of locks that occur below par, at par and therefore consider discounts and rebates.
Market Commentary:
For the week of March 8th - March 14th, 30-year and 15-year interest rates decreased.
“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased again this week, with declines totaling almost a quarter of a percent in two weeks’ time,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s Chief Economist.
Good news! The national economy is growing; unemployment is low; and corporate revenues are up.
With inflation still above the Fed’s 2 percent goal and the job market holding strong, the Fed isn’t likely to cut rates at its March meeting. “The Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates in the first half of this year, in my view,” says Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the National Association of Realtors, “but rate cuts of three, four, or even five rounds will be possible in the second half of the year as rent measures will be much more well-behaved.”
Key points from the Mortgage Bankers Association:
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The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.84% from 7.02%
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Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly rate moves, rose 12% for the week and were 5% higher than the same week one year ago.
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Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home rose 5% for the week but were still 11% lower compared with the year before.
Fed Watch:
Looking ahead to the upcoming March 20th, Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. According to the CME Group, 0.00% of forecasters predict an increase in interest rates, while 99% predict rates will remain the same. 1% of forecasters expect rates to decrease.
Market Review:
Per Black Knight's Production Metrics, the breakdown of mortgage production volume is as follows: 84.02% for purchase transactions, 10.74% for cash-out refinances, and 5.24% for rate and term refinances.
Per Black Knight 52.32% of all Retail loan production were Government Loans (FHA, VA, USDA), while 47.68% were Conventional and Non-Conforming loans.
News You Can Use:
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- Housing Market 2024: Buy a Home in These 25 Places If You Want It To Gain Value
- Mortgage demand rises for a second straight week
- Payroll Employment Remains Strong While Other Indicators Point to Softening
- Rate Drop Prompts Jump in Refi Application Volume
- Labor market tops expectations again: 275,000 jobs added in February
- February CPI Report: What the Experts Are Saying About Inflation
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 03/14/2024, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 03/14/2024 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac's economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac's business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an "as is" basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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