This weekly Market Update covers mortgage rates, economic releases and housing trends for real estate and mortgage industry professionals.
Mortgage Rate Index
Rates are provided by Mortgage News Daily. The MND Rate Index is the best way to follow day-to-day movement in mortgage rates. The index is driven by real-time changes in actual lender rate sheets. This has two huge advantages, timeliness and accuracy. A "top tier" scenario is used as a baseline (75 LTV, 780 FICO, etc.). Mortgage News Daily uses proprietary methodology to adjust the rate to account for points. That can mean that lenders are quoting 7.125 with points while our index is at 7.25, hypothetically.
Market Commentary
From November 6–12, 2026, mortgage rates gave back part of their recent gains. MND's 30-year fixed index held at 7.17% Friday, tied for the lowest since September 22, then rose to 7.30% Tuesday, up 0.12% from Monday, after a hotter-than-expected October CPI, as the 10-year Treasury yield pushed back above 5%. Core prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month, Fed Governor Waller said a half-point December hike could be justified, and futures now price essentially no chance of a December hold. Friday's jobs report was far stronger than expected (165,000 vs. about 65,000), and jobless claims stayed low at 200,000.
The silver lining is buyer leverage. Redfin reports October's median sale price slipped 0.4% from a year ago, the first annual decline in three years, and builder confidence fell to 29 with 43% of builders cutting prices. Mortgage applications rose 6.2% as rates briefly eased, and homeowners hold a record $17.5 trillion in equity, about $204,000 tappable per borrower.
Lead with structures that lower the initial payment: the 7/6 SOFR ARM (6.80%), FHA (6.89%) and VA (6.90%) all price below the 30-year fixed, and motivated sellers and builders are funding buydowns, credits and price cuts. Position HELOCs or second liens for owners who want cash without giving up a low first-lien rate. With a December hike all but priced in, waiting for meaningfully lower rates is a gamble, while today's lighter competition is a real advantage.
Key Factors Impacting Direction of Rates
Nonfarm Payrolls Oct: Employers added 165,000 jobs, well above expectations, and August and September were revised up a combined 84,000. Rates held flat as markets stayed focused on inflation.
Unemployment Rate Oct: The jobless rate ticked down to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4% for the month and 3.1% from a year ago, still trailing inflation.
UMich Consumer Sentiment Nov (prelim): Sentiment beat forecasts and year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.3% from 4.7%, though confidence remains historically weak.
CPI m/m Oct: Prices rose more than expected. Headline inflation cooled from September as the gasoline surge faded, but food, shelter and recreation stayed firm. BLS published no official 12-month rate because of the 2025 shutdown data gap.
Core CPI m/m Oct: Core prices rose 0.3% for a third straight month. The 30-year fixed jumped 0.12% to 7.30% and the 10-year yield moved back above 5%.
MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Nov 6: Applications rose as MBA's 30-year contract rate fell to 7.21% from 7.30%; the purchase index climbed to 141.2 from 131.4. The data predate Tuesday's rate jump.
Initial Jobless Claims w/e Nov 7: Claims rose 9,000 but remain near multi-decade lows, and continuing claims eased to 1.70 million. Layoffs stay low heading into the Fed's December meeting.
FedWatch: Target Rate Probabilities
FedWatch: Target rate (in bps) possibilities, according to the CME Group (as of 11/12/2026 – 12:00 PM EST):
Millennials Had It Better Than Baby Boomers—Until the Pandemic Changed the Math
Mortgage rates jump sharply after hot October inflation data
Realtor.com Market Clock: buyers gain ground nationally as mortgage rates top 7%
October home sales drop sharply in early-reporting markets (Calculated Risk)
October marks the first month in three years with a decline in U.S. home-sale prices (Redfin)
Builder confidence falls as 43% of builders cut prices (NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI)
ICE: Borrowers reach record tappable equity as cash-out refis drive runoff
Veteran Variation
Among civilians 18+, the state with the greatest share of veterans is Alaska; they're 9.7% of the population. In second is Virginia at 9%, followed by Montana at 8.6%. The state with the lowest percentage of veterans is NY at 3.3% followed by NJ at 3.4% then DC at 3.5%. Veterans make up 5.9% of the US population and number 15.7 million. To all veterans, thank you for your service! - Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D., Economist
News You Can Use
- Monthly Mortgage Payments Fall to Lowest Level in 6 Weeks as Home Prices Keep Dipping
- First-Time Home Buyer Share Inches Up to 22%, Median Age Remains at Record High of 40
- Existing-Home Sales Decreased 5.5% in October, According to NAR Report
- Mortgage rates jump sharply higher, after easing for four straight weeks. Here's why - CNBC
- October inflation ran hot again, making a December Fed hike likely - HousingWire
- Hot inflation report and hawkish comments from Fed's Waller put a 50 bps December hike in play - Redfin
- Second look at local housing markets in October - Calculated Risk
- Luxury prices extend 31-month run of annual declines, but 12 markets buck the trend - Realtor.com (via StockTitan)
- Florida approves property tax relief: Why insiders say the Sunshine State just made itself 'unbeatable' - Fox Business
Disclosures
*Communication is intended for Industry Professionals only and not intended for Consumer Distribution
Interest rate and annual percentage rate (APR) are based on current market conditions as of 11/12/2026, are for informational purposes only, are subject to change without notice and may be subject to pricing add-ons related to property type, loan amount, loan-to-value, credit score and other variables. Estimated closing costs used in the APR calculation are assumed to be paid by the borrower at closing. If the closing costs are financed, the loan, APR and payment amounts will be higher. Contact us for details. Additional loan programs may be available. Accuracy is not guaranteed, and all products may not be available in all borrower's geographical areas and are based on their individual situation. This is not a credit decision or a commitment to lend. actual interest rate, APR, and payment may vary based on the specific terms of the loan selected, verification of information, your credit history, the location and type of property, and other factors as determined by Prosperity Home Mortgage, LLC. Not available in all states. Rate is as of 11/12/2026 and is subject to change at any time without notice. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, and other views contained in this document are those of Freddie Mac’s economists and other researchers, do not necessarily represent the views of Freddie Mac or its management, and should not be construed as indicating Freddie Mac’s business prospects or expected results. Although the authors attempt to provide reliable, useful information, they do not guarantee that the information or other content in this document is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. All content is subject to change without notice. All content is provided on an “as is” basis, with no warranties of any kind whatsoever. Information from this document may be used with proper attribution.
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